Myths : Demographic dividend
India has set itself a humongous target of achieving a $5 trillion GDP by 2024. Experts believe that demographic dividend plays a huge role in achieving this task. Demographic dividend means the ‘economic growth that is achieved by an increase in the proportion of working age population(15–64 years)’. This is seen in countries which reduced total fertility rates and increased life expectancy.
India did significantly well in reducing its total fertility rate. The advancement in medical science helped in increasing the life expectancy. While these signs are encouraging, India’s population is expected to grow to 1.5 billion by 2036. While the percentage of population below 24 years in 2011 is 50.1%, it is expected to come down to 36% in 2036. This clearly implies an increase in the proportion of working age in the country.
‘Will the increase in the proportion of working age imply increase in workforce?’. The answer to this question implies if India can achieve demographic dividend. With growing unemployment and economic slow down, it requires a genius to turn things around. This is a very unique problem ever since independence and can be considered a bigger problem than the late 1980s, when the fiscal deficit was burgeoning and government was contemplating on selling its gold reserves. Some of the facets of this problem are as follows.
Quality of education : The quality of education in India is very poor. There are no ifs and buts in making this statement. There are various reports such as the ASER report which talk about the quality of education in the country. It is appalling to know the per capita expenditure of the government on general education by various states. Government of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana spend ~85,000 rupees per child per annum for general education, Government of Delhi spends upto ~1,00,000 rupees. This is no less when compared to the fee of private schools and yet the outcomes are poor. Kerala sets an example by government-aided-schools which encourages the missionaries, charities to give a value based and a quality education and pays these schools on a per child basis. A similar approach will encourage good spirited teachers to come together to provide quality education and remove inefficiencies in public schools. This is viable as well as proven effective in Kerala, which is ranked number one in annual School Education Quality Index by NITI Aayog.
Health care : 7000 people slip into poverty every hour because of unaffordable health care in the country. India is no different from the world when it comes to the nature of diseases. There has been an increase in non communicable diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, cardiac, cancer and psychological diseases as a result of changing lifestyles. These are diseases that can be avoided by right awareness and primary health care centres play an important role here. Instead of providing a strong, accessible and affordable health care system, India’s top think tank, NITI Aayog surprisingly went with an insurance model which will only increase the costs of health care and make it unaffordable. A strong health care system will address the issue of non communicable diseases at a local level and will never let them translate into tertiary care. According to a study, 10 million additional jobs can be created in building a strong and integrated public health care system.
Skilled workforce : Any job requires certain amount of skill. Be it agriculture, manufacturing or service sector. Due to lack of proper education and healthcare, the skills imparted to a person before he/she enters into a working age do not match with the industry requirements. In addition to this, stringent labour laws lets the foreign investors to choose alternate countries like Vietnam. Government of India targeted skilling 500 million people by 2022. However, only 6.8 million people were skilled till now and only 23% of them got a placement opportunity. Skill cannot be looked at as an exclusive subject. Right education and good health will eventually develop a skilled workforce.
Therefore the policy must be directed towards improving the quality of education, healthcare and skilling the labour force. Besides providing tangible benefits, the demographic dividend helps the countries to manage an ageing population. While the concept of demographic dividend is quite tempting, without addressing the above issues, it can very well turn into a demographic nightmare. COVID-19 has presented an opportunity by exposing the social divisions. The governments must first accept this problem and put honest efforts in creating a sustainable economy.
Jai Hind!
